Promising Nothing: Immigration Numbers Trending Downwards

On November 1, 2010 Citizenship and Immigration Canada announced its annual immigration plan for 2011 and the accompanying news release tries to paint a rosy picture for people looking to immigrate to Canada. However, on closer examination, Canada’s commitment to 2011 immigration numbers is nothing more that the same old song and dance at best and regressive at worst.

In the 2011 plan suggest that Canada will accept between 240,000 and 265,000 new permanent residents, with 60% coming through economic streams (skilled workers, investors, provincial nominees, etc.) and 40% through other non-economic programs (family class, refugees, etc). This represents the same commitment since 2006 (for 2007), when the Conservative Party took office, and as our population grows, maintaining the same commitment level actually represents a decrease in the number of new immigrants as compared to our national population.

With a national population of approximately 34 million people, 240,000 - 265,000 new permanent residents in 2011 represents approximately 0.70% to 0.78% of our current population. In 2006, Statistics Canada estimated Canada’s population at approximately 30 million people and at that time 240,000-265,000 new immigrants represented approximately 0.80% to 0.88% of our then population. So in essence, our government’s commitment to immigration levels, although spun as maintenance of current levels, actually represents a steady and significant decrease as compared to our actual population.

By comparison, according to Statistics Canada, Canada’s current birth rate is approximately 1.1% (381,000 births) and our current death rate is approximately 0.72% (247,000 deaths). Based on this year’s immigration targets, immigrants will roughly compensate for our death rate, leaving our country with a nominal population increase trajectory. As our current population ages we have to wonder whether we will have sufficient numbers to meet future labour market needs and how we will satisfy these needs if not through, in part, immigration.